These are the SNP's most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.
First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, the SNP should expect to win by up to 10%. Then we list the seats where the SNP are predicted to be within 5% of winning the seat.
These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!
Forecast vote shares (Sc): SNP: 33.4% | Reform: 19% | Labour: 16.4% | Conservative: 10% | Green: 9% | Liberal Democrat: 8.9%
[Last updated: June 2026]
| Constituency | SNP Forecast | Expected Competitor | Predicted Majority / Votes Required |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glasgow South | 1st | 15,429 | Labour | 8,466 | 6,963 | 9.9% |
| Glasgow South West | 1st | 14,020 | Labour | 7,514 | 6,506 | 9.4% |
| Aberdeen North | 1st | 15,821 | Reform | 8,753 | 7,068 | 9.3% |
| Kilmarnock and Loudoun | 1st | 16,258 | Labour | 9,358 | 6,900 | 9.2% |
| Livingston | 1st | 16,884 | Reform | 9,681 | 7,203 | 9.2% |
| North Ayrshire and Arran | 1st | 15,311 | Reform | 8,835 | 6,476 | 9.0% |
| Falkirk | 1st | 15,503 | Labour | 8,929 | 6,574 | 8.9% |
| West Dunbartonshire | 1st | 15,675 | Labour | 9,601 | 6,074 | 8.8% |
| Glasgow East | 1st | 13,527 | Labour | 7,535 | 5,992 | 8.7% |
| Glasgow North | 1st | 12,696 | Labour | 7,030 | 5,666 | 8.4% |
| Paisley and Renfrewshire North | 1st | 15,617 | Labour | 9,695 | 5,922 | 8.3% |
| Paisley and Renfrewshire South | 1st | 15,427 | Labour | 9,706 | 5,721 | 8.0% |
| Coatbridge and Bellshill | 1st | 15,351 | Labour | 9,645 | 5,706 | 7.9% |
| Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West | 1st | 14,894 | Labour | 9,403 | 5,491 | 7.8% |
| Edinburgh South West | 1st | 14,652 | Labour | 9,075 | 5,577 | 7.6% |
| Midlothian | 1st | 16,983 | Labour | 11,439 | 5,544 | 7.5% |
| Glasgow West | 1st | 14,338 | Labour | 9,166 | 5,172 | 7.5% |
| Edinburgh North and Leith | 1st | 15,857 | Labour | 10,071 | 5,786 | 7.4% |
| East Renfrewshire | 1st | 16,321 | Labour | 10,927 | 5,394 | 7.2% |
| Glasgow North East | 1st | 12,798 | Labour | 7,647 | 5,151 | 7.1% |
| Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey | 1st | 15,894 | Conservative | 10,560 | 5,334 | 6.9% |
| Alloa and Grangemouth | 1st | 14,003 | Reform | 9,198 | 4,805 | 6.8% |
| Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke | 1st | 14,458 | Labour | 9,601 | 4,857 | 6.8% |
| Rutherglen | 1st | 16,377 | Labour | 11,549 | 4,828 | 6.6% |
| East Kilbride and Strathaven | 1st | 16,410 | Labour | 11,367 | 5,043 | 6.6% |
| Central Ayrshire | 1st | 13,467 | Labour | 8,962 | 4,505 | 6.5% |
| Aberdeenshire North and Moray East | 1st | 14,407 | Reform | 9,907 | 4,500 | 6.4% |
| Airdrie and Shotts | 1st | 14,568 | Labour | 10,160 | 4,408 | 6.3% |
| Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy | 1st | 13,627 | Labour | 9,229 | 4,398 | 6.1% |
| Dunfermline and Dollar | 1st | 14,493 | Labour | 10,062 | 4,431 | 6.1% |
| Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | 1st | 12,674 | Reform | 8,808 | 3,866 | 5.5% |
| Bathgate and Linlithgow | 1st | 13,803 | Labour | 9,845 | 3,958 | 5.5% |
| Gordon and Buchan | 1st | 14,836 | Conservative | 11,206 | 3,630 | 5.2% |
| Hamilton and Clyde Valley | 1st | 15,091 | Labour | 11,355 | 3,736 | 4.9% |
| Dumfries and Galloway | 1st | 14,128 | Conservative | 10,632 | 3,496 | 4.5% |
| West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine | 1st | 14,907 | Conservative | 13,070 | 1,837 | 2.5% |
| Lothian East | 1st | 13,050 | Labour | 11,975 | 1,075 | 1.4% |
| Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire | 1st | 16,110 | Liberal Democrat | 15,222 | 888 | 1.1% |
| Na h-Eileanan an Iar | 1st | 3,893 | Labour | 3,650 | 243 | 1.1% |
| Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | 1st | 12,188 | Conservative | 11,741 | 447 | 0.6% |
| Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | 2nd | 13,308 | Conservative | 14,272 | 964 | 1.3% |
| Edinburgh South | 2nd | 10,415 | Labour | 12,971 | 2,556 | 3.6% |
See also: Electoral Analysis