Scottish National Party Key Battleground Seats

These are the SNP's most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, the SNP should expect to win by up to 10%. Then we list the seats where the SNP are predicted to be within 5% of winning the seat.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

Forecast vote shares (Sc): SNP: 29% | Labour: 18% | Reform: 17% | Conservative: 10% | Liberal Democrat: 10% | Green: 10%

[Last updated: September 2026]

Constituency SNP Forecast Expected Competitor Predicted Majority
/ Votes Required
Angus and Perthshire Glens 1st 19,389 Conservative 11,775 7,614 9.9%
Perth and Kinross-shire 1st 19,497 Conservative 12,418 7,079 9.2%
Stirling and Strathallan 1st 15,763 Labour 9,064 6,699 8.8%
Aberdeen North 1st 14,419 Reform 8,202 6,217 8.2%
Aberdeen South 1st 14,993 Conservative 9,072 5,921 7.7%
Glenrothes and Mid Fife 1st 14,615 Labour 9,457 5,158 7.3%
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh 1st 15,514 Labour 10,200 5,314 7.0%
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch 1st 15,067 Labour 10,240 4,827 6.9%
Livingston 1st 15,273 Labour 9,977 5,296 6.8%
North Ayrshire and Arran 1st 13,813 Labour 9,235 4,578 6.3%
Glasgow South 1st 13,922 Labour 9,596 4,326 6.2%
Glasgow South West 1st 12,744 Labour 8,522 4,222 6.1%
Kilmarnock and Loudoun 1st 14,710 Labour 10,610 4,100 5.5%
Glasgow East 1st 12,251 Labour 8,542 3,709 5.4%
Falkirk 1st 13,967 Labour 10,125 3,842 5.2%
Glasgow North 1st 11,453 Labour 7,965 3,488 5.2%
West Dunbartonshire 1st 14,195 Labour 10,870 3,325 4.8%
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East 1st 13,383 Conservative 10,138 3,245 4.6%
Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey 1st 14,410 Conservative 10,953 3,457 4.5%
Paisley and Renfrewshire North 1st 14,054 Labour 10,962 3,092 4.3%
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock 1st 11,217 Reform 8,225 2,992 4.3%
Coatbridge and Bellshill 1st 13,897 Labour 10,923 2,974 4.1%
Paisley and Renfrewshire South 1st 13,875 Labour 10,978 2,897 4.0%
Glasgow North East 1st 11,561 Labour 8,670 2,891 4.0%
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West 1st 13,385 Labour 10,642 2,743 3.9%
Edinburgh South West 1st 12,950 Labour 10,244 2,706 3.7%
Glasgow West 1st 12,844 Labour 10,362 2,482 3.6%
Alloa and Grangemouth 1st 12,504 Labour 9,984 2,520 3.6%
Edinburgh North and Leith 1st 13,999 Labour 11,349 2,650 3.4%
Midlothian 1st 15,357 Labour 13,070 2,287 3.1%
Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke 1st 12,978 Labour 10,860 2,118 3.0%
East Renfrewshire 1st 14,457 Labour 12,378 2,079 2.8%
Central Ayrshire 1st 11,931 Labour 10,146 1,785 2.6%
Gordon and Buchan 1st 13,488 Conservative 11,699 1,789 2.6%
East Kilbride and Strathaven 1st 14,636 Labour 12,853 1,783 2.3%
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy 1st 12,096 Labour 10,432 1,664 2.3%
Airdrie and Shotts 1st 13,261 Labour 11,657 1,604 2.3%
Rutherglen 1st 14,833 Labour 13,229 1,604 2.2%
Dumfries and Galloway 1st 12,595 Conservative 11,016 1,579 2.0%
Dunfermline and Dollar 1st 12,776 Labour 11,331 1,445 2.0%
Bathgate and Linlithgow 1st 12,186 Labour 11,101 1,085 1.5%
Hamilton and Clyde Valley 1st 13,525 Labour 12,986 539 0.7%
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine 2nd 13,310 Conservative 13,509 199 0.3%
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 2nd 10,695 Conservative 12,147 1,452 2.0%
Lothian East 2nd 11,150 Labour 13,463 2,313 3.1%
Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire 2nd 14,328 Liberal Democrat 16,956 2,628 3.4%
Na h-Eileanan an Iar 2nd 3,400 Labour 4,202 802 3.8%
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 2nd 11,821 Conservative 14,806 2,985 3.9%

See also: Electoral Analysis