The Labour Party's Key Battleground Seats

These are Labour's most marginal seats, based on the lowest percentage swing required for the result to differ from VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

First we list the seats where, based on current opinion polls, Labour should expect to win by up to 2%. Then we list the seats where Labour are predicted to be within 2% of winning the seat.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

Forecast vote shares (GB): Labour: 25.4% | Reform: 23.3% | Conservative: 19.9% | Green: 11.7% | Liberal Democrat: 10.4%

[Last updated: September 2026]

Constituency Labour Forecast Expected Competitor Predicted Majority
/ Votes Required
Luton South and South Bedfordshire 1st 10,023 Other 8,494 1,529 2.0%
Southport 1st 13,169 Reform 11,718 1,451 2.0%
Gateshead Central and Whickham 1st 13,807 Reform 12,432 1,375 2.0%
Leeds South West and Morley 1st 13,434 Reform 12,053 1,381 1.9%
Isle of Wight West 1st 10,091 Reform 9,118 973 1.8%
Congleton 1st 14,354 Conservative 13,086 1,268 1.7%
North Northumberland 1st 13,546 Reform 12,286 1,260 1.7%
Hexham 1st 21,060 Conservative 19,775 1,285 1.7%
Banbury 1st 14,167 Conservative 12,965 1,202 1.6%
Camborne and Redruth 1st 14,713 Reform 13,522 1,191 1.6%
Wakefield and Rothwell 1st 13,458 Reform 12,299 1,159 1.5%
Stafford 1st 14,107 Reform 13,033 1,074 1.5%
Redcar 1st 12,000 Reform 10,960 1,040 1.5%
Stalybridge and Hyde 1st 12,265 Reform 11,244 1,021 1.4%
Cities of London and Westminster 1st 11,825 Conservative 10,813 1,012 1.4%
Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice 1st 13,613 Reform 12,634 979 1.3%
Kensington and Bayswater 1st 13,176 Conservative 12,143 1,033 1.3%
Hemel Hempstead 1st 12,852 Reform 11,934 918 1.3%
South Norfolk 1st 13,182 Conservative 12,260 922 1.2%
Penistone and Stocksbridge 1st 14,614 Reform 13,747 867 1.2%
Jarrow and Gateshead East 1st 14,241 Reform 13,427 814 1.2%
Wigan 1st 14,545 Reform 13,654 891 1.1%
Warrington North 1st 14,215 Reform 13,423 792 1.1%
Gloucester 1st 12,518 Reform 11,633 885 1.1%
Ilford South 1st 12,242 Other 11,385 857 1.1%
Southend East and Rochford 1st 11,684 Reform 10,983 701 1.0%
Bristol South 1st 13,754 Green 13,088 666 0.9%
Weston-super-Mare 1st 12,414 Reform 11,801 613 0.9%
Chipping Barnet 1st 16,788 Conservative 16,134 654 0.8%
Darlington 1st 12,707 Conservative 12,165 542 0.8%
Buckingham and Bletchley 1st 13,449 Conservative 12,886 563 0.8%
Bournemouth West 1st 10,921 Reform 10,395 526 0.7%
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor 1st 13,973 Reform 13,433 540 0.7%
Northampton South 1st 12,851 Reform 12,423 428 0.6%
Crawley 1st 13,169 Reform 12,716 453 0.6%
Kettering 1st 13,471 Reform 13,030 441 0.6%
Bolton West 1st 13,123 Reform 12,717 406 0.5%
Blyth and Ashington 1st 15,190 Reform 14,804 386 0.5%
Hartlepool 1st 12,463 Reform 12,174 289 0.4%
East Thanet 1st 12,798 Reform 12,538 260 0.3%
Stockton North 1st 12,999 Reform 12,824 175 0.2%
Birmingham Erdington 1st 11,037 Reform 10,880 157 0.2%
Preston 1st 10,242 Other 10,091 151 0.2%
Mid Derbyshire 1st 13,155 Conservative 13,032 123 0.2%
South Derbyshire 1st 13,463 Reform 13,352 111 0.2%
North East Hertfordshire 1st 13,963 Conservative 13,887 76 0.1%
Carlisle 1st 13,785 Reform 13,723 62 0.1%
Leigh and Atherton 1st 15,131 Reform 15,100 31 0.0%
Bradford East 1st 10,247 Other 10,235 12 0.0%
North East Derbyshire 2nd 13,452 Conservative 13,455 3 0.0%
Southend West and Leigh 2nd 12,683 Reform 12,708 25 0.0%
Stourbridge 2nd 11,643 Reform 11,683 40 0.1%
Bassetlaw 2nd 14,062 Reform 14,112 50 0.1%
Wolverhampton North East 2nd 10,858 Reform 10,961 103 0.1%
Rossendale and Darwen 2nd 13,839 Reform 13,981 142 0.2%
Bolsover 2nd 12,976 Reform 13,136 160 0.2%
Scunthorpe 2nd 11,757 Reform 11,916 159 0.2%
Birmingham Northfield 2nd 11,263 Reform 11,442 179 0.2%
Wellingborough and Rushden 2nd 13,435 Reform 13,662 227 0.3%
Erewash 2nd 13,053 Reform 13,277 224 0.3%
Reading West and Mid Berkshire 2nd 12,416 Conservative 12,641 225 0.3%
Telford 2nd 13,799 Reform 14,050 251 0.3%
Barnsley North 2nd 13,978 Reform 14,295 317 0.4%
Ossett and Denby Dale 2nd 13,061 Reform 13,419 358 0.5%
Plymouth Moor View 2nd 13,434 Reform 13,836 402 0.5%
Bolton South and Walkden 2nd 11,106 Reform 11,553 447 0.6%
Ashton-under-Lyne 2nd 11,591 Reform 11,997 406 0.6%
Scarborough and Whitby 2nd 13,473 Reform 13,911 438 0.6%
Gravesham 2nd 12,630 Reform 13,070 440 0.6%
Rawmarsh and Conisbrough 2nd 12,531 Reform 12,968 437 0.6%
Bishop Auckland 2nd 12,913 Reform 13,364 451 0.6%
Hamilton and Clyde Valley 2nd 12,986 SNP 13,525 539 0.7%
Rother Valley 2nd 12,252 Conservative 12,764 512 0.7%
Pendle and Clitheroe 3rd 12,177 Conservative 12,772 595 0.8%
Dagenham and Rainham 2nd 12,377 Reform 12,963 586 0.8%
South Shields 2nd 11,131 Reform 11,667 536 0.8%
Newcastle-under-Lyme 2nd 12,140 Reform 12,690 550 0.8%
Bracknell 3rd 11,235 Conservative 11,820 585 0.8%
Suffolk Coastal 3rd 11,852 Reform 12,468 616 0.8%
Stoke-on-Trent Central 2nd 11,170 Reform 11,782 612 0.8%
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket 3rd 12,547 Reform 13,240 693 0.9%
Birmingham Ladywood 2nd 11,394 Other 12,137 743 0.9%
Blackpool South 2nd 12,779 Reform 13,474 695 0.9%
Aylesbury 2nd 11,492 Conservative 12,234 742 0.9%
Ribble Valley 2nd 13,871 Conservative 14,685 814 1.0%
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme 2nd 11,498 Reform 12,275 777 1.1%
Oldham East and Saddleworth 2nd 10,415 Reform 11,257 842 1.1%
Halifax 2nd 10,444 Reform 11,342 898 1.2%
Halesowen 2nd 11,378 Reform 12,176 798 1.2%
Uxbridge and South Ruislip 2nd 12,608 Conservative 13,512 904 1.2%
South Dorset 3rd 11,909 Reform 12,831 922 1.2%
Gillingham and Rainham 2nd 11,760 Reform 12,692 932 1.3%
Earley and Woodley 2nd 15,785 Conservative 16,720 935 1.3%
Easington 2nd 12,581 Reform 13,469 888 1.3%
Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley 2nd 12,881 Reform 13,914 1,033 1.4%
Peterborough 2nd 10,047 Conservative 11,064 1,017 1.4%
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard 3rd 11,387 Reform 12,461 1,074 1.4%
Washington and Gateshead South 2nd 13,301 Reform 14,298 997 1.4%
Normanton and Hemsworth 2nd 12,994 Reform 14,077 1,083 1.4%
Thurrock 2nd 12,085 Reform 13,136 1,051 1.4%
North Somerset 2nd 14,747 Conservative 15,837 1,090 1.5%
Derby South 2nd 10,687 Reform 11,761 1,074 1.5%
Bathgate and Linlithgow 2nd 11,101 SNP 12,186 1,085 1.5%
Forest of Dean 3rd 12,362 Conservative 13,502 1,140 1.6%
Mansfield 2nd 12,150 Reform 13,323 1,173 1.6%
Poole 3rd 10,741 Conservative 11,917 1,176 1.6%
Bolton North East 2nd 12,015 Reform 13,320 1,305 1.6%
Heywood and Middleton North 2nd 11,936 Reform 13,143 1,207 1.6%
Derbyshire Dales 2nd 13,549 Conservative 14,756 1,207 1.6%
Exmouth and Exeter East 3rd 11,102 Conservative 12,436 1,334 1.7%
Bristol East 2nd 17,166 Green 18,433 1,267 1.7%
Harlow 2nd 12,350 Reform 13,603 1,253 1.7%
Houghton and Sunderland South 2nd 14,204 Reform 15,522 1,318 1.7%
Blackpool North and Fleetwood 2nd 12,694 Reform 13,951 1,257 1.7%
Walsall and Bloxwich 2nd 9,101 Reform 10,392 1,291 1.7%
Lichfield 3rd 13,095 Reform 14,448 1,353 1.8%
Hendon 2nd 12,246 Conservative 13,593 1,347 1.8%
Stoke-on-Trent North 2nd 10,999 Reform 12,263 1,264 1.8%
Huddersfield 2nd 11,127 Green 12,542 1,415 1.8%
Redditch 3rd 11,202 Reform 12,529 1,327 1.9%
Chelsea and Fulham 2nd 14,443 Conservative 15,915 1,472 1.9%
North West Leicestershire 3rd 12,707 Reform 14,215 1,508 1.9%
Central Devon 3rd 12,754 Conservative 14,221 1,467 1.9%
Beverley and Holderness 3rd 11,692 Conservative 13,094 1,402 1.9%
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North 3rd 7,603 Reform 9,128 1,525 2.0%
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland 2nd 14,446 Conservative 15,840 1,394 2.0%
Dunfermline and Dollar 2nd 11,331 SNP 12,776 1,445 2.0%

See also: Electoral Analysis