Predicted Closest Two-Way Marginal Seats

There are 216 seats where the majority is forecast to smaller than 2.1%, according to VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

If VoteClimate can recruit one million members and they are distributed evenly across the UK, that's 2.1% of registered voters in each seat.

Vote shares (GB): Labour: 25.4% | Reform: 23.3% | Conservative: 19.9% | Green: 11.7% | Liberal Democrat: 10.4%

[Last updated: September 2026]

Constituency Winner Second Votes Required
North East Derbyshire Conservative 13,455 Labour 13,452 3 0.00%
Monmouthshire Plaid Cymru 13,021 Reform 13,016 5 0.01%
Bradford East Labour 10,247 Other 10,235 12 0.02%
Southend West and Leigh Reform 12,708 Labour 12,683 25 0.03%
Leigh and Atherton Labour 15,131 Reform 15,100 31 0.04%
Clwyd East Plaid Cymru 14,339 Reform 14,309 30 0.04%
Vale of Glamorgan Plaid Cymru 13,415 Reform 13,383 32 0.04%
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Reform 9,128 Other 9,089 39 0.05%
Stourbridge Reform 11,683 Labour 11,643 40 0.06%
Bassetlaw Reform 14,112 Labour 14,062 50 0.06%
Carlisle Labour 13,785 Reform 13,723 62 0.08%
North East Hertfordshire Labour 13,963 Conservative 13,887 76 0.10%
Newton Abbot Reform 12,761 Liberal Democrat 12,686 75 0.10%
Wolverhampton North East Reform 10,961 Labour 10,858 103 0.15%
South Derbyshire Labour 13,463 Reform 13,352 111 0.15%
Mid Derbyshire Labour 13,155 Conservative 13,032 123 0.18%
Old Bexley and Sidcup Conservative 14,948 Reform 14,818 130 0.18%
Rossendale and Darwen Reform 13,981 Labour 13,839 142 0.19%
Preston Labour 10,242 Other 10,091 151 0.20%
Birmingham Erdington Labour 11,037 Reform 10,880 157 0.20%
Bolsover Reform 13,136 Labour 12,976 160 0.21%
Scunthorpe Reform 11,916 Labour 11,757 159 0.22%
East Londonderry DUP 11,506 Sinn Fein 11,327 179 0.24%
Aberafan Maesteg Plaid Cymru 12,608 Reform 12,434 174 0.24%
Birmingham Northfield Reform 11,442 Labour 11,263 179 0.24%
Stockton North Labour 12,999 Reform 12,824 175 0.25%
Broadland and Fakenham Conservative 13,725 Reform 13,524 201 0.26%
Hereford and South Herefordshire Reform 12,643 Conservative 12,452 191 0.26%
Suffolk Coastal Reform 12,468 Conservative 12,268 200 0.27%
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine Conservative 13,509 SNP 13,310 199 0.27%
Bracknell Conservative 11,820 Reform 11,611 209 0.29%
Wellingborough and Rushden Reform 13,662 Labour 13,435 227 0.29%
Pendle and Clitheroe Conservative 12,772 Reform 12,539 233 0.30%
Erewash Reform 13,277 Labour 13,053 224 0.31%
South Leicestershire Conservative 15,255 Reform 15,005 250 0.32%
Reading West and Mid Berkshire Conservative 12,641 Labour 12,416 225 0.33%
Telford Reform 14,050 Labour 13,799 251 0.34%
East Thanet Labour 12,798 Reform 12,538 260 0.35%
South Holland and The Deepings Reform 14,493 Conservative 14,180 313 0.40%
Poole Conservative 11,917 Reform 11,624 293 0.40%
Hartlepool Labour 12,463 Reform 12,174 289 0.40%
Barnsley North Reform 14,295 Labour 13,978 317 0.40%
Mid Norfolk Conservative 14,024 Reform 13,713 311 0.41%
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr Plaid Cymru 14,233 Reform 13,920 313 0.42%
Grantham and Bourne Conservative 13,848 Reform 13,527 321 0.44%
South Suffolk Reform 13,735 Conservative 13,395 340 0.46%
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Reform 12,461 Conservative 12,087 374 0.49%
Gainsborough Reform 14,290 Conservative 13,918 372 0.49%
Ossett and Denby Dale Reform 13,419 Labour 13,061 358 0.50%
Blyth and Ashington Labour 15,190 Reform 14,804 386 0.50%
Plymouth Moor View Reform 13,836 Labour 13,434 402 0.54%
Bolton West Labour 13,123 Reform 12,717 406 0.54%
Kettering Labour 13,471 Reform 13,030 441 0.56%
Bolton South and Walkden Reform 11,553 Labour 11,106 447 0.56%
Broxbourne Conservative 13,226 Reform 12,798 428 0.57%
Ashton-under-Lyne Reform 11,997 Labour 11,591 406 0.57%
Bromsgrove Reform 14,264 Conservative 13,819 445 0.58%
Scarborough and Whitby Reform 13,911 Labour 13,473 438 0.59%
Torridge and Tavistock Reform 13,832 Conservative 13,388 444 0.59%
Clwyd North Reform 12,746 Plaid Cymru 12,298 448 0.60%
Crawley Labour 13,169 Reform 12,716 453 0.60%
Gravesham Reform 13,070 Labour 12,630 440 0.60%
Northampton South Labour 12,851 Reform 12,423 428 0.61%
Central Suffolk and North Ipswich Reform 12,911 Conservative 12,460 451 0.62%
Harwich and North Essex Reform 14,330 Conservative 13,854 476 0.62%
Rawmarsh and Conisbrough Reform 12,968 Labour 12,531 437 0.63%
Bishop Auckland Reform 13,364 Labour 12,913 451 0.64%
South Dorset Reform 12,831 Conservative 12,345 486 0.64%
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe Reform 12,318 Plaid Cymru 11,849 469 0.64%
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket Reform 13,240 Conservative 12,731 509 0.65%
Exmouth and Exeter East Conservative 12,436 Reform 11,915 521 0.65%
Aldridge-Brownhills Reform 13,703 Conservative 13,241 462 0.66%
Sleaford and North Hykeham Reform 14,838 Conservative 14,320 518 0.68%
Godalming and Ash Conservative 19,575 Liberal Democrat 19,054 521 0.69%
Hamilton and Clyde Valley SNP 13,525 Labour 12,986 539 0.71%
Sussex Weald Conservative 13,790 Reform 13,267 523 0.72%
North West Cambridgeshire Reform 12,926 Conservative 12,376 550 0.72%
Rother Valley Conservative 12,764 Labour 12,252 512 0.74%
Fylde Conservative 13,276 Reform 12,703 573 0.74%
Ely and East Cambridgeshire Liberal Democrat 14,552 Conservative 13,963 589 0.74%
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor Labour 13,973 Reform 13,433 540 0.75%
Bournemouth West Labour 10,921 Reform 10,395 526 0.75%
Buckingham and Bletchley Labour 13,449 Conservative 12,886 563 0.75%
Dagenham and Rainham Reform 12,963 Labour 12,377 586 0.77%
Darlington Labour 12,707 Conservative 12,165 542 0.77%
Lichfield Reform 14,448 Conservative 13,864 584 0.77%
South Shields Reform 11,667 Labour 11,131 536 0.78%
Wrexham Plaid Cymru 12,968 Reform 12,412 556 0.79%
Daventry Reform 15,587 Conservative 14,946 641 0.79%
Newcastle-under-Lyme Reform 12,690 Labour 12,140 550 0.81%
North West Norfolk Conservative 13,458 Reform 12,845 613 0.82%
Stoke-on-Trent Central Reform 11,782 Labour 11,170 612 0.83%
Chipping Barnet Labour 16,788 Conservative 16,134 654 0.84%
Beverley and Holderness Conservative 13,094 Reform 12,490 604 0.84%
Weston-super-Mare Labour 12,414 Reform 11,801 613 0.86%
Bristol South Labour 13,754 Green 13,088 666 0.88%
Pontypridd Plaid Cymru 13,251 Reform 12,577 674 0.89%
Birmingham Ladywood Other 12,137 Labour 11,394 743 0.89%
Blackpool South Reform 13,474 Labour 12,779 695 0.90%
West Suffolk Reform 13,844 Conservative 13,136 708 0.92%
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Reform 12,797 Plaid Cymru 12,103 694 0.93%
Aylesbury Conservative 12,234 Labour 11,492 742 0.94%
North East Hampshire Liberal Democrat 17,933 Conservative 17,189 744 0.97%
Herne Bay and Sandwich Reform 15,120 Conservative 14,366 754 0.97%
Gower Reform 15,119 Plaid Cymru 14,368 751 0.99%
Southend East and Rochford Labour 11,684 Reform 10,983 701 1.00%
South West Devon Conservative 15,042 Reform 14,262 780 1.01%
Ribble Valley Conservative 14,685 Labour 13,871 814 1.01%
South Shropshire Conservative 14,652 Reform 13,873 779 1.02%
Redditch Reform 12,529 Conservative 11,782 747 1.05%
Ilford South Labour 12,242 Other 11,385 857 1.06%
Swansea West Plaid Cymru 11,666 Reform 10,869 797 1.07%
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme Reform 12,275 Labour 11,498 777 1.11%
Gloucester Labour 12,518 Reform 11,633 885 1.11%
Christchurch Conservative 13,972 Reform 13,179 793 1.12%
Bromley and Biggin Hill Conservative 13,447 Reform 12,656 791 1.12%
Warrington North Labour 14,215 Reform 13,423 792 1.12%
Spelthorne Reform 12,593 Conservative 11,765 828 1.12%
Forest of Dean Conservative 13,502 Reform 12,682 820 1.13%
Oldham East and Saddleworth Reform 11,257 Labour 10,415 842 1.15%
Wigan Labour 14,545 Reform 13,654 891 1.15%
Jarrow and Gateshead East Labour 14,241 Reform 13,427 814 1.16%
Halifax Reform 11,342 Labour 10,444 898 1.16%
North East Cambridgeshire Conservative 13,373 Reform 12,541 832 1.16%
Halesowen Reform 12,176 Labour 11,378 798 1.16%
The Wrekin Reform 14,589 Conservative 13,653 936 1.19%
Leicester East Conservative 11,917 Other 11,005 912 1.19%
Uxbridge and South Ruislip Conservative 13,512 Labour 12,608 904 1.21%
North West Leicestershire Reform 14,215 Conservative 13,270 945 1.22%
Penistone and Stocksbridge Labour 14,614 Reform 13,747 867 1.23%
Maldon Reform 16,935 Conservative 15,971 964 1.23%
Fareham and Waterlooville Conservative 14,688 Reform 13,737 951 1.24%
Bridgend Reform 13,159 Plaid Cymru 12,253 906 1.24%
South Norfolk Labour 13,182 Conservative 12,260 922 1.25%
Farnham and Bordon Conservative 15,882 Liberal Democrat 14,930 952 1.25%
East Hampshire Conservative 15,411 Liberal Democrat 14,523 888 1.26%
Romford Reform 13,715 Conservative 12,792 923 1.27%
Gillingham and Rainham Reform 12,692 Labour 11,760 932 1.27%
Mid Bedfordshire Conservative 14,187 Reform 13,228 959 1.27%
Earley and Woodley Conservative 16,720 Labour 15,785 935 1.27%
Easington Reform 13,469 Labour 12,581 888 1.28%
Hinckley and Bosworth Conservative 14,205 Reform 13,221 984 1.29%
Hemel Hempstead Labour 12,852 Reform 11,934 918 1.29%
South West Wiltshire Conservative 13,096 Reform 12,143 953 1.30%
Portsmouth North Reform 12,480 Conservative 11,558 922 1.31%
Kensington and Bayswater Labour 13,176 Conservative 12,143 1,033 1.34%
Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice Labour 13,613 Reform 12,634 979 1.34%
Mid and South Pembrokeshire Reform 14,226 Plaid Cymru 13,137 1,089 1.38%
Cities of London and Westminster Labour 11,825 Conservative 10,813 1,012 1.38%
Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley Reform 13,914 Labour 12,881 1,033 1.38%
Peterborough Conservative 11,064 Labour 10,047 1,017 1.39%
North Antrim Other 12,229 DUP 11,192 1,037 1.39%
Washington and Gateshead South Reform 14,298 Labour 13,301 997 1.40%
Stalybridge and Hyde Labour 12,265 Reform 11,244 1,021 1.41%
Normanton and Hemsworth Reform 14,077 Labour 12,994 1,083 1.43%
Thurrock Reform 13,136 Labour 12,085 1,051 1.43%
Witham Conservative 15,650 Reform 14,495 1,155 1.46%
Kingswinford and South Staffordshire Conservative 15,126 Reform 14,077 1,049 1.46%
North Somerset Conservative 15,837 Labour 14,747 1,090 1.46%
Derby South Reform 11,761 Labour 10,687 1,074 1.47%
Redcar Labour 12,000 Reform 10,960 1,040 1.48%
Bathgate and Linlithgow SNP 12,186 Labour 11,101 1,085 1.50%
Stafford Labour 14,107 Reform 13,033 1,074 1.52%
Wakefield and Rothwell Labour 13,458 Reform 12,299 1,159 1.54%
Mansfield Reform 13,323 Labour 12,150 1,173 1.57%
North Dorset Conservative 15,084 Liberal Democrat 13,933 1,151 1.58%
Camborne and Redruth Labour 14,713 Reform 13,522 1,191 1.60%
Meriden and Solihull East Conservative 14,022 Reform 12,839 1,183 1.61%
Rhondda and Ogmore Reform 13,996 Plaid Cymru 12,782 1,214 1.63%
Bolton North East Reform 13,320 Labour 12,015 1,305 1.63%
Banbury Labour 14,167 Conservative 12,965 1,202 1.64%
Bexhill and Battle Conservative 13,442 Reform 12,255 1,187 1.64%
Heywood and Middleton North Reform 13,143 Labour 11,936 1,207 1.65%
Derbyshire Dales Conservative 14,756 Labour 13,549 1,207 1.65%
Bristol East Green 18,433 Labour 17,166 1,267 1.67%
Harlow Reform 13,603 Labour 12,350 1,253 1.68%
Houghton and Sunderland South Reform 15,522 Labour 14,204 1,318 1.68%
Hexham Labour 21,060 Conservative 19,775 1,285 1.68%
North Northumberland Labour 13,546 Reform 12,286 1,260 1.70%
Blackpool North and Fleetwood Reform 13,951 Labour 12,694 1,257 1.72%
Walsall and Bloxwich Reform 10,392 Labour 9,101 1,291 1.72%
Congleton Labour 14,354 Conservative 13,086 1,268 1.74%
Isle of Wight West Labour 10,091 Reform 9,118 973 1.76%
Braintree Reform 15,824 Conservative 14,441 1,383 1.78%
East Antrim DUP 11,462 Alliance 10,156 1,306 1.78%
Brigg and Immingham Reform 14,543 Conservative 13,239 1,304 1.78%
Hendon Conservative 13,593 Labour 12,246 1,347 1.80%
Stoke-on-Trent North Reform 12,263 Labour 10,999 1,264 1.81%
Sevenoaks Conservative 15,179 Reform 13,843 1,336 1.81%
Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton Other 11,299 Reform 9,918 1,381 1.82%
Huddersfield Green 12,542 Labour 11,127 1,415 1.82%
Central Devon Conservative 14,221 Reform 12,825 1,396 1.85%
Chelsea and Fulham Conservative 15,915 Labour 14,443 1,472 1.88%
Stoke-on-Trent South Reform 12,719 Conservative 11,398 1,321 1.89%
Melton and Syston Conservative 14,534 Reform 13,116 1,418 1.91%
Staffordshire Moorlands Reform 14,129 Conservative 12,794 1,335 1.91%
Mid Leicestershire Conservative 14,895 Reform 13,444 1,451 1.91%
Leeds South West and Morley Labour 13,434 Reform 12,053 1,381 1.92%
Brentwood and Ongar Reform 16,161 Conservative 14,691 1,470 1.95%
Gateshead Central and Whickham Labour 13,807 Reform 12,432 1,375 1.97%
Southport Labour 13,169 Reform 11,718 1,451 1.97%
Luton South and South Bedfordshire Labour 10,023 Other 8,494 1,529 1.98%
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Conservative 15,840 Labour 14,446 1,394 1.98%
Dunfermline and Dollar SNP 12,776 Labour 11,331 1,445 1.98%
Mid Dorset and North Poole Liberal Democrat 20,336 Conservative 18,828 1,508 2.00%
Neath and Swansea East Reform 15,141 Plaid Cymru 13,612 1,529 2.00%
Dumfries and Galloway SNP 12,595 Conservative 11,016 1,579 2.01%
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Conservative 12,147 SNP 10,695 1,452 2.02%
Orpington Conservative 14,651 Reform 13,196 1,455 2.04%
Nuneaton Reform 12,899 Labour 11,432 1,467 2.04%
St Austell and Newquay Reform 13,620 Labour 12,059 1,561 2.05%
Welwyn Hatfield Labour 15,319 Conservative 13,767 1,552 2.06%
Eastleigh Liberal Democrat 13,503 Conservative 12,050 1,453 2.08%
Llanelli Plaid Cymru 16,588 Reform 15,101 1,487 2.08%
Dover and Deal Reform 15,805 Labour 14,210 1,595 2.09%
Worthing West Labour 15,731 Conservative 14,114 1,617 2.10%

Full list: Next General Election Forecast By Required Swing

See also: Electoral Analysis