Electorate: 74,460
Gerald Jones is the MP for Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare. Check out Gerald Jones's Record on Climate.
Based on the latest opinion polls, VoteClimate estimates that if a general election happened today, the result in Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare would be as follows.
This constituency projection is based on the following national vote shares (Wales): Plaid Cymru: 35.4% | Reform: 29.3% | Labour: 11.1% | Conservative: 10.7% | Green: 6.7% | Liberal Democrat: 4.5%
[Last updated: September 2026]
For our full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.