Predicted Closest Two-Way Marginal Seats

There are 155 seats where the majority is forecast to smaller than 2.1%, according to VoteClimate's Forecast For The Next General Election.

These are seats where Registering with VoteClimate will have the maximum influence on party policies. So if you have climate-concerned friends and family in these areas, please invite them to join us!

If VoteClimate can recruit one million members and they are distributed evenly across the UK, that's 2.1% of registered voters in each seat.

Vote shares (GB): Reform: 27% | Labour: 18.8% | Conservative: 18.3% | Green: 14.5% | Liberal Democrat: 12.2%

[Last updated: June 2026]

Constituency Winner Second Votes Required
Norwich South Labour 12,342 Green 12,341 1 0.00%
Monmouthshire Plaid Cymru 13,021 Reform 13,016 5 0.01%
Wirral West Labour 13,683 Reform 13,666 17 0.02%
South Shropshire Reform 14,891 Liberal Democrat 14,864 27 0.04%
Clwyd East Plaid Cymru 14,339 Reform 14,309 30 0.04%
Vale of Glamorgan Plaid Cymru 13,415 Reform 13,383 32 0.04%
Tynemouth Reform 14,547 Labour 14,503 44 0.06%
Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton Reform 11,351 Other 11,299 52 0.07%
Exeter Labour 10,438 Reform 10,391 47 0.07%
Stockport Reform 12,683 Labour 12,627 56 0.07%
Gosport Reform 13,793 Conservative 13,736 57 0.08%
Birmingham Edgbaston Labour 9,658 Reform 9,602 56 0.08%
Swindon South Labour 12,966 Reform 12,884 82 0.11%
Hamble Valley Reform 14,492 Conservative 14,390 102 0.13%
Coventry South Labour 12,065 Reform 11,960 105 0.14%
New Forest East Reform 13,107 Conservative 12,958 149 0.21%
North West Essex Conservative 15,051 Reform 14,882 169 0.21%
East Londonderry DUP 11,506 Sinn Fein 11,327 179 0.24%
Aberafan Maesteg Plaid Cymru 12,608 Reform 12,434 174 0.24%
Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley Reform 7,083 Other 6,892 191 0.25%
West Worcestershire Conservative 14,384 Reform 14,182 202 0.25%
North Bedfordshire Conservative 15,454 Reform 15,237 217 0.28%
Rochdale Other 11,587 Reform 11,336 251 0.35%
Uxbridge and South Ruislip Reform 12,973 Conservative 12,711 262 0.35%
Birkenhead Labour 12,984 Green 12,708 276 0.35%
Portsmouth South Reform 11,203 Labour 10,942 261 0.35%
Hackney South and Shoreditch Labour 14,738 Green 14,433 305 0.39%
Rushcliffe Labour 14,954 Reform 14,643 311 0.39%
Sutton Coldfield Reform 14,901 Conservative 14,605 296 0.40%
Newton Abbot Liberal Democrat 13,934 Reform 13,630 304 0.41%
Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr Plaid Cymru 14,233 Reform 13,920 313 0.42%
Welwyn Hatfield Reform 13,334 Conservative 13,013 321 0.43%
Reigate Conservative 14,522 Reform 14,174 348 0.45%
Macclesfield Labour 14,753 Reform 14,400 353 0.47%
Leicester East Other 11,005 Conservative 10,641 364 0.48%
Stratford and Bow Green 11,121 Labour 10,699 422 0.52%
South West Hertfordshire Reform 12,538 Conservative 12,163 375 0.52%
Wythenshawe and Sale East Labour 12,158 Reform 11,732 426 0.55%
York Outer Labour 13,673 Reform 13,252 421 0.55%
Thirsk and Malton Reform 15,283 Conservative 14,848 435 0.55%
Bermondsey and Old Southwark Labour 9,475 Liberal Democrat 9,085 390 0.56%
Leeds North West Labour 13,387 Reform 12,983 404 0.56%
Clwyd North Reform 12,746 Plaid Cymru 12,298 448 0.60%
Gorton and Denton Labour 10,724 Reform 10,253 471 0.62%
Bedford Labour 10,706 Reform 10,258 448 0.62%
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale SNP 12,188 Conservative 11,741 447 0.62%
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe Reform 12,318 Plaid Cymru 11,849 469 0.64%
Preston Reform 10,601 Other 10,091 510 0.66%
Bristol North East Green 11,583 Reform 11,116 467 0.67%
Salford Labour 12,354 Reform 11,744 610 0.73%
North Cotswolds Liberal Democrat 13,284 Conservative 12,745 539 0.74%
Droitwich and Evesham Reform 15,653 Conservative 15,072 581 0.76%
Peterborough Reform 10,880 Conservative 10,308 572 0.78%
Wrexham Plaid Cymru 12,968 Reform 12,412 556 0.79%
Filton and Bradley Stoke Reform 14,069 Labour 13,454 615 0.79%
North West Hampshire Reform 14,321 Conservative 13,649 672 0.85%
Nottingham South Reform 9,590 Labour 9,040 550 0.86%
Pontypridd Plaid Cymru 13,251 Reform 12,577 674 0.89%
Chingford and Woodford Green Conservative 13,116 Other 12,445 671 0.91%
Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare Reform 12,797 Plaid Cymru 12,103 694 0.93%
Bradford East Other 10,235 Reform 9,514 721 0.96%
Hitchin Reform 14,307 Labour 13,565 742 0.98%
Brent West Conservative 10,984 Labour 10,198 786 0.98%
Huntingdon Reform 15,034 Conservative 14,257 777 0.98%
Solihull West and Shirley Reform 13,005 Conservative 12,298 707 0.98%
Gower Reform 15,119 Plaid Cymru 14,368 751 0.99%
Poplar and Limehouse Labour 10,414 Green 9,562 852 1.01%
Cambridge Labour 13,030 Green 12,278 752 1.07%
Swansea West Plaid Cymru 11,666 Reform 10,869 797 1.07%
Leeds West and Pudsey Reform 11,875 Labour 11,115 760 1.08%
Runcorn and Helsby Reform 14,060 Labour 13,284 776 1.10%
Ellesmere Port and Bromborough Labour 14,563 Reform 13,785 778 1.10%
Barking Reform 10,059 Labour 9,181 878 1.10%
Stroud Labour 15,114 Reform 14,253 861 1.11%
Manchester Withington Labour 12,798 Green 12,015 783 1.11%
High Peak Reform 14,228 Labour 13,388 840 1.13%
Chester North and Neston Labour 13,261 Reform 12,464 797 1.14%
Na h-Eileanan an Iar SNP 3,893 Labour 3,650 243 1.14%
Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire SNP 16,110 Liberal Democrat 15,222 888 1.14%
Newark Conservative 16,568 Reform 15,651 917 1.15%
Banbury Reform 12,981 Conservative 12,129 852 1.16%
Lewisham North Labour 15,105 Green 14,236 869 1.17%
Hackney North and Stoke Newington Labour 14,659 Green 13,723 936 1.20%
Harrow West Labour 11,772 Conservative 10,808 964 1.21%
Smethwick Reform 10,637 Labour 9,754 883 1.21%
Goole and Pocklington Reform 15,811 Conservative 14,835 976 1.22%
Reading West and Mid Berkshire Reform 12,551 Conservative 11,711 840 1.22%
Bradford West Reform 7,122 Green 6,164 958 1.23%
Bridgend Reform 13,159 Plaid Cymru 12,253 906 1.24%
Manchester Rusholme Green 9,612 Labour 8,711 901 1.24%
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk Conservative 14,272 SNP 13,308 964 1.26%
Skipton and Ripon Reform 15,708 Conservative 14,703 1,005 1.27%
Wolverhampton West Reform 12,373 Labour 11,352 1,021 1.31%
Basingstoke Reform 13,306 Labour 12,258 1,048 1.34%
Mid and South Pembrokeshire Reform 14,226 Plaid Cymru 13,137 1,089 1.38%
North Antrim Other 12,229 DUP 11,192 1,037 1.39%
Derbyshire Dales Reform 14,737 Conservative 13,711 1,026 1.40%
New Forest West Reform 13,299 Conservative 12,330 969 1.41%
Luton South and South Bedfordshire Reform 9,586 Other 8,494 1,092 1.41%
Birmingham Selly Oak Reform 11,021 Labour 9,947 1,074 1.42%
Lothian East SNP 13,050 Labour 11,975 1,075 1.42%
Bristol North West Labour 13,990 Green 12,920 1,070 1.43%
Kenilworth and Southam Conservative 14,664 Reform 13,588 1,076 1.44%
East Wiltshire Reform 13,874 Conservative 12,807 1,067 1.44%
Milton Keynes Central Reform 12,966 Labour 11,751 1,215 1.50%
Truro and Falmouth Reform 13,099 Labour 11,982 1,117 1.53%
Enfield North Labour 12,630 Reform 11,418 1,212 1.54%
Finchley and Golders Green Conservative 14,323 Labour 13,128 1,195 1.54%
Feltham and Heston Reform 10,450 Labour 9,244 1,206 1.57%
Southampton Test Reform 10,229 Labour 9,170 1,059 1.62%
Widnes and Halewood Labour 14,303 Reform 13,167 1,136 1.62%
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North Reform 10,350 Other 9,089 1,261 1.62%
Rhondda and Ogmore Reform 13,996 Plaid Cymru 12,782 1,214 1.63%
Croydon East Reform 12,015 Labour 10,762 1,253 1.64%
Erith and Thamesmead Labour 13,302 Reform 12,008 1,294 1.64%
Manchester Central Labour 11,628 Reform 10,227 1,401 1.64%
Cities of London and Westminster Conservative 10,106 Labour 8,895 1,211 1.65%
Stretford and Urmston Labour 13,226 Reform 11,979 1,247 1.66%
Mid Buckinghamshire Conservative 14,820 Liberal Democrat 13,557 1,263 1.67%
Beaconsfield Conservative 13,534 Liberal Democrat 12,318 1,216 1.67%
Altrincham and Sale West Conservative 13,409 Labour 12,154 1,255 1.70%
South Northamptonshire Reform 15,985 Conservative 14,779 1,206 1.71%
East Worthing and Shoreham Reform 14,264 Labour 12,982 1,282 1.72%
Weald of Kent Reform 16,598 Conservative 15,292 1,306 1.72%
Leyton and Wanstead Labour 11,934 Green 10,704 1,230 1.72%
Luton North Reform 9,702 Other 8,405 1,297 1.73%
East Surrey Reform 14,268 Conservative 12,979 1,289 1.76%
East Antrim DUP 11,462 Alliance 10,156 1,306 1.78%
Leeds South Labour 12,050 Green 10,683 1,367 1.80%
West Lancashire Reform 14,538 Labour 13,202 1,336 1.80%
Leeds Central and Headingley Green 10,374 Labour 9,089 1,285 1.82%
Coventry East Reform 12,132 Labour 10,739 1,393 1.84%
Brentford and Isleworth Labour 11,647 Reform 10,185 1,462 1.84%
Kensington and Bayswater Conservative 11,485 Labour 10,031 1,454 1.88%
West Ham and Beckton Labour 9,344 Other 7,830 1,514 1.92%
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Reform 13,619 Labour 12,169 1,450 1.93%
Harborough, Oadby and Wigston Conservative 14,598 Reform 13,101 1,497 1.94%
Blackley and Middleton South Reform 11,292 Labour 9,883 1,409 1.95%
Salisbury Conservative 13,028 Liberal Democrat 11,624 1,404 1.96%
Warrington South Reform 15,198 Labour 13,662 1,536 1.96%
Worthing West Reform 14,846 Conservative 13,336 1,510 1.96%
Shrewsbury Reform 14,828 Labour 13,324 1,504 1.96%
Newcastle upon Tyne North Labour 14,273 Reform 12,804 1,469 1.96%
Birmingham Yardley Other 10,582 Reform 9,142 1,440 1.97%
Melton and Syston Reform 14,883 Conservative 13,399 1,484 2.00%
Shipley Reform 14,285 Labour 12,802 1,483 2.00%
Darlington Reform 12,915 Conservative 11,500 1,415 2.00%
Runnymede and Weybridge Conservative 13,803 Reform 12,328 1,475 2.00%
Neath and Swansea East Reform 15,141 Plaid Cymru 13,612 1,529 2.00%
Milton Keynes North Reform 12,719 Labour 11,295 1,424 2.01%
St Helens South and Whiston Reform 12,348 Labour 10,894 1,454 2.03%
Leicester West Reform 10,630 Labour 9,106 1,524 2.06%
Orpington Reform 14,892 Conservative 13,425 1,467 2.06%
Llanelli Plaid Cymru 16,588 Reform 15,101 1,487 2.08%
Streatham and Croydon North Labour 13,644 Green 11,906 1,738 2.10%

Full list: Next General Election Forecast By Required Swing

See also: Electoral Analysis